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Absolutely Revolting
Commentary

A bullet with butterfly wings

Precarity obscured by an emphatic federal election result
by John Byron •
June 2025, no. 476

Last month’s remarkable federal election result has produced a metric plethora of articles explaining how it was achieved and what it means for the government, for the electorate, and for elections to come.

Despite the sprawl of red across the chamber, the result should not blind us to the degree of uncertainty that now prevails in the electorate. We are living inside a new electoral calculus and all the major parties need to adapt for future elections, or we will need another, bigger word for ‘landslide’.

 


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Comments

Patrick Hockey
Saturday, 14 June 2025 09:32
The conclusion that doorknocking and 'even more listening' is now more important assumes the effectiveness of both strategies. Research on the effectiveness of doorknocking, for instance, is mixed to say the least; it is a very difficult matter to gather data on as how does one compare like with like (how does one compare a candidate who doorknocks against one who doesn't and draw valuable conclusions given their other inevitable differences?) For what's it's worth I suspect that the amount of doorknocking that actually occurs is overstated. In several decades as a voter across metro and regional areas I have personally never been canvassed by a candidate.
Linden Hyatt
Friday, 30 May 2025 20:51
Byron’s piece insightfully warns that Labor’s historic win masks a volatile electoral landscape, where minor shifts in primary votes or preferences can now flip seats due to a fragmented three-way split. But the article leans too heavily on metaphor, lacks hard data, and offers few concrete solutions, missing a chance to ground its sharp analysis in deeper structural or policy insight, a limitation of ABR formats and limited word counts (as with most content). Be nice if he had a forum to explore this further.

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